US Loses #1 Beef Production Status

Brazil, already the biggest beef exporter, surpassed the United States as the world’s top beef producer in 2025. Brazil’s production increased 4% to 12.35 million tons while US production fell 3.9% to 11.8 million tons. A year ago, Brazil production had been expected to drop nearly 3%. So much for the experts. To make matters worse, at least in the US, domestic production is expected to fall 1% in 2026.

The USDA (Dept. of Agriculture), again, expects Brazil’s production to fall this year by as much as 5%. However, Rabobank, basically an agricultural bank headquartered in the Netherlands, expects growth of 0.5% for Brazil. If the USDA is correct, worldwide beef production could fall as much as 2.6% in the current year. If Rabobank is correct, worldwide production may only drop of 0.2%. Either way…

… beef is not going to become less costly anytime soon. Supply is not keeping up with demand – even at today’s prices.

American beef production is still far more efficient. US government data shows the US with 94 million head of cattle vs 238 million head in Brazil. That’s about 1 ton per 8 head vs 1 ton per 19 head. As much as 90% of US cattle are fattened in feedlots while only 22% of Brazil’s cattle are. Allegedly, a feedlot can fatten up cattle six times faster than those raised in a pasture. I’m not a rancher, so I have no idea of the accuracy in that statement. Perhaps a rancher could fill me in, as well as the pros and cons of feedlot vs pasture.

When it comes to the long-term outlook for prices, at least for consumers, it’s looking a little better. Brazil has a lot of room to grow. Pregnancy rates in the country during breeding season are only 50%. Argentina’s is 66% and Canada’s is 96%. If Brazil were to match Argentina’s rate, it would add another 8 million head to its herd. Coupled with putting a higher percentage of cattle into feedlots, say 28% by 2027, as consultants hope, perhaps the supply and demand equation could come closer to being in balance, which in theory, should result in lower prices for consumers.

Beef production, by 2034 – eight years away, is expected to grow by 24% in Brazil and 3.5% in the US. As I said, not any time soon.

Personally, I love beef. It’s my favorite meat. Prices, at least for this consumer and many others I listen to, are too high. I gave up steaks a couple of years ago. I still buy ground beef, but not as much. On the other hand, that may be because I splurge somewhat on ground bison and lamb more often than in the past. I figure if I’m going to pay high prices, I might as well spend a few extra dollars for something “different” every now and then. A lamb burger with feta or Swiss cheese has become my new monthly extravagance. One pound makes four burgers, so two a day makes for two days of bliss.

Source used: Farm Forum