Mass Shootings at 20-Year Low

Yet another mass shooting happened last week. They never seem to stop or slow down… or do they? Numbers matter. The recent shooting at a children’s birthday party in California, that left four dead, was the 17th mass killing in the US this year – the lowest number recorded since 2006. Of course, how one defines a mass shooting is important. There are many different descriptions.

In this case, it includes incidents in which four or more people are killed in a 24-hour period, excluding the killer. The database is maintained by the Associated Press and USA Today in partnership with Northeastern University. The current drop in numbers is most likely what statisticians call a “regression to the mean”, stated Alan Fox, a criminologist.

Is this the start of a new trend? Hopefully! Fox says mass killings were down about 24% this year compared to 2024, which was also about a 20% drop compared to 2023. Thus far, none of the mass killings recorded this year took place in a school, and only one mass killing at a school was recorded in 2024. Let’s hope this trend continues as mass shootings in schools, especially elementary schools, defies all logic – barring a student seeking revenge for excessive bullying.

Mass killings are actually rare, which means numbers can be volatile. It doesn’t take a high case variance to make climb and drop percentages seem large. Coincidentally, there has also been an overall decline in individual homicide and violent crime rates, which peaked during the Covid-19 pandemic, thanks to government’s idiotic, now-debunked response.

Crime, arguably, is a very complex issue, and academics have a hard time agreeing on the reasons for varying crime rates. So enter my opinion. Crime has three basic elements: Money, jealousy, and power. If one were to lump it into one word: Frustration. Frustration in having things not go the way one wants can cause many people to act out in negative and violent ways. No money? Kill and steal it. Girlfriend cheated on you? Kill her and her family. A new drug gang shows up in town? Take them down. All of them bad choices.

Another example of homicide rates dropping occurred in the 1990s. I don’t think it’s rocket science as to why. The economy did fairly well at that time and people were happier, less divisive. Hatred via social media had yet to exist.

About 82% of this year’s mass killings involved a firearm. It’s a statistic that coincides with 81% of the 3,200+ deaths from mass killings since 2006 being shooting victims. Emma Fridel, assistant professor of criminology at Florida State University, stated, “If you look at the deaths from firearms, both in homicides and suicides, the numbers are staggering…. The number one cause of death for children is guns.”

Sorry, Emma! That’s a flat-out lie! According to the NIH (National Institute of Health), injury-related causes rank number one representing 60% of adolescent deaths. Vehicle-related deaths are second at 20%. Firearm deaths (intentional, suicidal, and accidental) rate third at 15%.

Conclusion: any shooting death decline is a good decline.

Source used: The Guardian