Did U.S. Underestimate Iran?

Operation Epic Fury was yet another demonstration of America’s ability to obliterate anything, including it’s own common sense. US forces inflicted substantial losses on Iran’s military, rapidly destroying its navy, and most of its air defenses. Despite all that, the war has yet to be won. Iran has stayed in the fight, and has the US reaching for diplomacy.

The problem: Power of proximity. In Pentagon jargon, while the US clearly has the military advantage, the fighting still takes place in Iran’s back yard. The sustained closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused a rapid increase in the costs of global energy. Financial markets virtually require bringing the US to the negotiating table.

Iran’s “feeble military” still is using missiles and drones to strike civilian and military targets in at least eight US partner countries in the region, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, and Qatar. In addition, the US military’s forward deployment of 40,000 soldiers on large military bases, close to the Gulf, offered Iran a series of tantalizing targets. Iranian missiles and drones hit at least a dozen US bases. Six US soldiers were killed in strikes on US bases in Kuwait. Strikes on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia destroyed a valuable E‑3 Sentry AWACS aircraft and damaged or destroyed several tanker aircraft. The vulnerability of these bases even caused the Pentagon to tell many forward-deployed personnel to work remotely.

So the next question is: Just what is a short war and military operation? It’s now close to two months. Trump's verbose bantering had many Americans thinking weeks, not months. Iran is proving one doesn’t need weapons of mass destruction to create havoc in the world – just an attack by a foreign invader.

How much deterrence and operational value does the US derive from military infrastructure that can be targeted... even by the severely degraded military forces of a middle power? If our bases have trouble supporting our wars in the region, why have the bases… or the wars, at all?

China possesses a large and growing nuclear arsenal, so the US is probably less likely to get into a shooting war with China than against Iran – which brings me to a previous comment I have made. Assured mutual destruction is the only thing that prevents assured mutual destruction.

The military industrial complex has convinced many of us that Iran is a viable danger to our national security. Probably so, but not because of nukes. The war is proving they’re not as feeble as everyone wants to think. If any country wants to take us down, it will be done via the digital world. Digital viruses will cause far harm than any bomb.

Granted, US defense policymakers must plan for worst-case scenarios. However, planning for a worse-case scenario does not mean bombing the daylights out of another country so the military industrial complex and bankers can continue to have jobs and make countless oodles of cash.

Source used: Cato Institute